It was always going to be difficult for Steph Curry to replicate his regular season production in the playoffs. After all, Curry was coming off the greatest shooting season in NBA history. That he was able to keep up that pace through an 82-game season was remarkable; expecting him to extend that another 20 or so games may have been an unreasonable expectation.
Having said that, the drop in his production and efficiency as the postseason progressed was more significant than even the most pessimistic fan would have expected and the biggest reason the Warriors were unable to cap off their 73-win regular season with a championship.
Before we dig into the numbers in order to explain Curry’s drop-off, here are his splits between the regular season, Western Conference playoffs and NBA finals:So what’s to blame for Curry’s statistical slide? We’ve looked into NBA.com’s tracking numbers and advanced stats in order to come up with three reasons for Curry’s postseason struggles…
1. He didn’t attack the basket
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If you look at how Curry got his shots in the regular season compared to how he got them in the postseason, you won’t find a huge difference:
The percentage of his shots that came on catch-and-shoot opportunities remained essentially the same, while his pull-up shots increased and his shots around the basket dipped. Curry traded those rim-attacking attempts for off-the-bounce jumpers.
Part of the reason Curry stopped attacking the rim may have been his lack off success. After shooting 61% around the rim during the regular season, his percentage dropped about 10%. In the Finals, he shot just 45.5% within 10 feet and had five of his 26 shots around the rim blocked. He had only 31 of his 422 shots around the rim blocked during the regular season — that’s a 270% increase in block rate.
With the paint closed off, Curry had to adjust his game, which leads us to…
2. He settled for bad jumpers
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Curry was taking and making ridiculous shots all season long. That didn’t change in the Finals. The degree of difficulty on those shots did, however. Per NBA.com, 47.0% of his regular season shot attempts were defended tightly (a defender within four feet). That number jumped to 54.8% in the Finals. His field goal percentage on such attempts also dropped 10% on such attempts.
3. He dribbled too much
Ken Blaze-USA TODAY Sports
The Warriors were a joy to watch during the regular season because of their free-flowing offense. Seeing them jack up all of those 3s was entertaining, but it worked because the team played unselfishly and always hunted the best possible shot. In the playoffs, the ball did not move as much as it had during the regular season, and Curry was biggest culprit in that sudden stagnation.
His shot attempts after three dribbles increased. As did his touches that lasted at least six seconds. His average touch time jumped a half-second during the postseason, per NBA.com. So Curry was not only holding the ball longer but more of his touches were resulting in shots rather than smart passes. And these weren’t the same shots he was getting in the regular season. They were far more difficult.
Curry’s final possession in Game 7 was emblematic of his postseason struggles. After a switch, he ended up isolated with Kevin Love. Instead of heading straight for the rim, Curry passes up on possible multiple driving opportunities to jack up a tightly contested pull-up 3 after dribbling side-to-side for 10 seconds.
That’s not the Curry — or Warriors offense — we saw in the regular season. Curry played as if he was being controlled by a teenager playing NBA2K, and it wasn’t very fun to watch.
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